The murmurs have coalesced into a thunderous declaration: the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) has emerged on Nigeria’s political scene. In a country where political alliances are as common as campaign promises, yet often as fleeting, the formation of ADA immediately begs the question: is this the “mega party” that can finally unseat the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu, and his All Progressives Congress (APC)?
Nigeria’s political history is replete with attempts at coalition-building, often driven more by shared opposition to a dominant force than by a coherent, unifying ideology. From the First Republic’s United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) and Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) to the Second Republic’s Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA), and even into the Fourth Republic with the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and All Peoples Party (APP) teaming up against the then-dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the narrative has largely been one of ambitious mergers that ultimately fall short.
Take the 1964 general election, which saw the UPGA battle the NNA. While intensely contested, the underlying regional and ethnic divides often proved more potent than the unifying rhetoric. Similarly, the PPA in 1983, despite its ambition to challenge the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), crumbled under internal discord, paving the way for an NPN landslide. These historical precedents highlight a consistent challenge: how to reconcile the diverse interests, egos, and regional loyalties that inevitably converge within such broad alliances.
The most notable exception to this trend, of course, is the very party ADA seeks to unseat: the All Progressives Congress (APC). Formed in 2013 from the merger of four opposition parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), along with aggrieved members of the PDP – the APC successfully ended PDP’s 16-year dominance in 2015. Their success was built on a potent combination of a unified front against a perceived underperforming incumbent, strong charismatic leadership, and perhaps crucially, a clear common enemy.
So, can ADA replicate this success and unseat Bola Tinubu? On paper, a united opposition certainly holds considerable potential. The combined votes of the two leading opposition candidates in the 2023 elections, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, significantly outpolled President Tinubu’s total. This numerical reality fuels the belief that a well-structured and genuinely unified alliance could pose a formidable challenge in 2027.
However, the path to victory is fraught with familiar obstacles. Who will lead the ADA? The question of a consensus presidential candidate has historically been the undoing of many Nigerian alliances. Can prominent figures like Atiku and Obi, who themselves harbored presidential ambitions, truly set aside personal aspirations for a collective goal? The tendency for personality-driven politics over ideological cohesion remains a significant hurdle. Furthermore, while the APC successfully presented a united front in 2015, maintaining that unity post-victory has proven challenging, a lesson ADA must heed.
Another critical factor is the ruling APC’s own strength and strategic maneuvers. President Tinubu has demonstrated a knack for consolidating power, attracting defectors from opposition ranks, and ensuring loyalty within the political landscape. The ability of ADA to counter this influence, both financially and structurally, will be key.
Ultimately, the emergence of the All Democratic Alliance is a significant development, reflecting a clear desire within opposition ranks to forge a stronger front. Yet, history serves as a stern reminder: the success of such a “marriage” depends not just on its formation, but on its ability to transcend individual ambitions, foster genuine ideological alignment, and present a truly unified and compelling alternative to the Nigerian electorate. Only then can it hope to be the giant killer that unseats the incumbent.
Comrade Godwin Anyebe is Journalist and a Rights Activist.
