Over the course of the 20th century, the number of independent states in the world doubled. Recently, increasing attention has been given to the issue of separatism and secession. This does not mean that this phenomena is new. It’s just that, it has become more frequent, attritious and tenacious.
The moves have become common and widespread today, that it has constituted perhaps not the single greatest source of social insecurity but the most consistent drain on human resources. Separatism and secession have claimed thousands of lives world wide and the number seems not to be decreasing.
In Nigeria, most of the agitations were separatist in nature since they did not get to the point of breaking away from the federation. The only exceptions were the short lived “Delta People’s Republic” of 1966 and the “the republic of Biafra” which actually declared an independent and backed it up with arms.
Isaac Jasper Boro declared the first Republic within Nigeria called the Niger Delta Republic that lasted for 12 days. It was an attempt to liberate the Niger Delta people from the socio-economic oppression by the then eastern regional government. He was a chemistry undergraduate and the president of the students’ union of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, a police officer and at his death, a commissioned officer of the Nigerian Army.
It is no use to repeat that Isaac Boro who was jailed by the Maj. Gen. Aguiyi-Ironsi government on recommendation by the supreme court of Nigeria was pardoned by Lt. Col Yakubu Gowon’s government and later commissioned by the Nigerian Army as an officer to help liberate southern territories under Biafran control. He recruited Rivers men who volunteered to serve under him and gave them brief training at Escravos.
On the other hand, Odumegwu Ojukwu on May 30, 1967, declared the Eastern region an independent sovereign state as the Republic of Biafra. Federal troops afterward invaded Biafra, and civil war broke out in July 1967. Ojukwu led Biafra’s unsuccessful struggle to survive as an independent state throughout the civil war, and on the eve of Biafra’s surrender in 1970, he fled to Codedivoire, where he was granted asylum.
More recently, agitators of Biafra Republic in the southeast, and their Oduduwa counterparts in the southwest, forged a common front to advance their cause of self-determination.
This came as the bodies urged the Federal Government to convene a referendum where Nigerians can freely make a democratic choice, whether they want to continue with Nigeria as presently configured or seek their right to self-determination before the 2023 general election.
In a joint statement by International General Secretary of Yoruba One Voice, YOV, Dr Sina Okanlomo and Head, Directorate of State of the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, Mazi Chika Edoziem, the groups dug into the historical antecedent of Nigeria as a nation, concluding that the 1914 forced amalgamation of the different nation-states which made up Nigeria and the successive years of exploitation of the peoples of the Southern parts of Nigeria, has entrenched poverty, underdevelopment, mediocrity, unemployment, wanton killings, terrorism, inequality, insecurity, among others.
This quest for disintegration as recently witnessed in different section of the country will rather compound the problems than solving them. The nation will continue to have intertribal crisis. For example, the OSU man in Igbo land would never be taken serious by another Igbo man because of an existing discrimination. The battle of supremacy between the Oyo and Ife would be emboldened. The man from Oke-Ogun in Oyo State and the other man from Yewa in Ogun state will continue to suffer dominance from the acclaimed majority in the states.
The states that are tagged; “northern minorities will not be left out in all of these. Adamawa State has close to 50 ethnic groups and if care is not taken, there will be intertribal wars over battle of supremacy. Chibok, Gwoza, Hawul in Borno state, Karekare in Yobe State, Tangale and Waja in Gombe State, Tsiyawa in Bauchi State, and Zuru in Kebbi State may also want to say no to political and economic dominance which may lead to another pocket of crisis.
In addition, the ijaw man will claim he is the majority in Niger Delta, therefore, he would want to call the shots in the nation. And that may not sound well to an Itsekiri, Uhrobo, Isoko, Ibibio, Ugeb, Efik, Ikwere, Ogoja among others in the region which may also lead another chaos.
However, economists have typically been silent on the economic consequences of state breakup. This is only changing slowly. For example, the historical experience of Yugoslavia has been used to illustrate that severe welfare losses can arise from violent breakup.
According to evidence from the breakup of the Soviet Union, a political disintegration can indeed lead to large losses in GDP. Despite a relatively peaceful breakup, output losses in the (former) Soviet Union were as large as those in (former) Yugoslavia. Crucially, research shows that these output falls are due to disrupted trade relationships, and that these disrupted trade links can be causally attributed to independence movements.
Moreover, the Soviet breakup describes a situation where trade volumes and output fell as a reaction to expected, rather than actual, exits. Actual secessions lagged behind autonomy declarations by 1-2 years. This highlights the role of uncertainty surrounding secessions and the negative repercussions this might have on present output.
In a similar vein, recent research has provided evidence that uncertainty surrounding the modalities of Brexit has already reduced both growth and investment in the UK, even though the rules of the common market are still in operation.
Finally, the output fall due to the Soviet disintegration was so large because reorientation to new trade partners outside the former Union was hampered by several factors. Firstly, the process of transition to a market economy meant that the basic institutions necessary for integration into world markets were lacking at first.
Secondly, barriers of a political nature inhibited the outward reorientation of many former Soviet countries. Those that were able to overcome these barriers, such as the Baltic countries, were able to recuperate the losses of disintegration within a decade. For those countries, such as Ukraine, that were caught between integration with western markets and Russia, the Soviet disintegration had more persistent.
To this end, as vice President Yemi Osinbajo pleaded at a time, Nerians from all walks of life must endeavour to commit to ensuring Nigeria’s unity, because the nation is stronger together than apart. Thus, the need to discountenance differences in religious, ethnic and political affiliations.
